Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina described Russian economic growth as moderate and said there were no signs of the economy overheating in reverse. She spoke at a joint meeting of State Duma committees discussing preparations to review the Main Guidelines for the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2027–2029.
Which signs the regulator assessed
Nabiullina explained that rising unemployment, falling real incomes and inflation below target could indicate that the economy was overheating in reverse. In her assessment, none of these signs is currently present.
Thus, the Central Bank governor’s assessment of moderate growth does not mean that the economy is contracting or overheating in reverse. The regulator distinguishes the pace of economic activity from conditions in the labor market, incomes and inflation: Nabiullina identified these indicators as the criteria for assessing risk.
The monetary policy context
The remarks came as part of preparations for a document setting out monetary policy guidelines for 2027–2029. The State Duma committees’ discussion connects an assessment of current trends with the regulator’s future decisions, but the statement about moderate growth did not announce any policy changes.
In a separate assessment, the Bank of Russia described economic growth in 2025 as moderate; GDP was likely to come in near the lower end of the 1.0–2.0% forecast range. It also noted a slowdown after the high growth rates of 2023–2024 and a return to a more balanced trajectory. These figures relate to the assessment for 2025, while Nabiullina’s remarks concerned signs of the economy overheating in reverse and preparations for the 2027–2029 policy guidelines.
What this means for assessing the economy
Under the regulator’s reasoning, a slowdown in growth alone is not enough to say that the economy is overheating in reverse. Such an assessment depends on employment, real incomes and inflation relative to the target. Nabiullina said that none of these signals is currently being observed.
The Central Bank governor did not give specific figures for unemployment, real incomes or inflation in these remarks. Her wording therefore describes an overall assessment of the economy rather than a separate forecast for each indicator.
What happens next
The next step is for the State Duma to consider the Main Guidelines for the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2027–2029. The joint committee meeting focused on preparations for that review; the statement did not give a date for further discussion.
Sources
- cbr.ru — “No. 1”
- Bank of Russia — “Bank of Russia Macroeconomic Survey”
- cbr.ru — “Economic activity is picking up”
- Telegram — “Bank of Russia”
- vk.ru — “You have high expectations!”